Reality always overcomes the numeric models

Today one of the most seeing TV program is little section about weather, even there are channels dedicates at the meteorological information. Their success is in their magical precision to predict the future. Yes, it’s only weather but humanity likes magicians and fortune-teller, and weather newsreels have a little of future prediction. Obviously weathermen isn’t a wizard, the background of their prediction is a very good mathematical structure. But mathematics alone can’t predict anything; the real secret is the modeling of atmosphere what is able to make this miracle. The degree of success will give the degree of similitude that has model respect the reality.

Models are models and reality is other thing. Model is only a simplification of we can sense reality could be. Atmosphere, our reality, is spectacularly complex. As a beginning we can consider which variables of the atmosphere are interesting of our model and which variables can be ignored; but in variables there is a difficult in advance that isn’t minor issue: we don’t know all the variables and how many variables are in fact. 

Other question that climatic physical can face when they make a mathematical model of atmosphere is to find very accurate relations between these variables. Physical have a help in this work, the laws of physics, physical apply these laws in their mathematical expression and they adjusts to reality. But this has a difficult. The mathematical expressions of physics laws are only a simplification, in the meaning of we have a limited number of mathematical tools, and these tools couldn’t express exactly the relation between variables involucres; our current mathematical tools are more powerful but our brain is linear so our mathematics are lineal, and nothing guarantee that atmospheric variables are relating in linear form, in fact we are sure that atmospheric variables aren’t relating in linear form.

And if we have enough with the problem of the linearity, climate physics must face other huge obstacle: the chaos. In the stopping of temperatures, I explained a little how work the chaos laws, but in summary we can say: first when you have variables with relations cross between them, little differences in boundary conditions could evolve the system (atmosphere in our case) to very different final states; second we doesn’t have enough precision in to get variable values and it’s materially impossible have all the values of the boundary conditions; third the final states of now are the boundary condition of evolution of our system after. The compilation final of them is the little error in to get values, inevitable for a real measuring device, will be propagating in time until monstrous proportions.

The reality is that our model has a degree of reliability. When climate physical make predictions in time always it has a degree of error. Today IPCC must change the prediction of temperature rise to the down. This thing seems to have bothered climate change activism, this title show clearly what I can say: ‘Climate agency accused of cooling on global warming as new report lowers predicted temperature increase’; but models are models and this doesn’t mean the finish of climate change, only it is a new prediction of its evolution. Reality shows us a little slow down of increase of temperatures, and these real data we must introduce in boundary conditions, but if we don’t introduce them, we are doing the same thing that make deniers: falsification reality.

And what does it mean the slowdown of temperatures?

First: models didn’t include all significant variables, for example the melding of continental and arctic ice. This is an error but already arranged. These arranged errors have helped to improve the model, and in the successive the predictions gain in accuracy.

Second: slowdown doesn’t mean stop. Temperatures continues growing, and even it will stop the temperature is higher so climate will evolve in these temperatures that are different of before them and their evolution will be different, in consequence the climate will be change.

Today economics power which don’t want change the way of life that carry us to the disaster, are celebrating their victory in an scenario without climate change. But this is false. Climate change is running in background. It seems like a joke but the modeling which were despising by deniers today they are caught by them, and the blind faith with green activist had with this models now they think that their results are one claudication in front economics powers.

Climate models are only a mathematical tool and they don’t know of the geopolitically or economics powers. But their results have two conditions: the validity of model and interpretation of results. First will improve with error but second is used with weapon against opponents instead to prepare for the imminent change our world.