Bloc en català

diumenge, 7 de juny de 2015

Mankind is melding by own hot

Coaching is a great fashion who wants to success in the life. Really I didn’t think that it’s necessary but it could help us when we’re lost. A personal couch is only the classical counselor, someone with experience or knowledge who gives us other point of view, and she/he shows us several possible actions about this problem; the difference is the professionalism and academic knowledge. Today mankind needs a couch, because we are lost.

Indian suffers an extreme hot wave. More than 500 people have died and hot are so intense that asphalt pavement is melting (literal view photo). Obviously extreme weather has always been independent of climate; but simultaneously US California has the same rain that Mexicana California: any drop; dry Texas is flooding, and in Rocky Mountains didn’t snow in the winter while US east coast has suffer several cool waves. USA weather is knowing in all the World thanks their potent press industry, but Europe doesn’t safe from these disasters; and in other parts of planet usually hide of media, floods and droughts are often first page in the news. Extreme weather doesn’t mean climate change but climatechange make extreme weather.

Extreme weather melts our infraestructures

What are we doing? Well we are still talking from two decades, but we don’t do anything. Global economy runs very well for who have money, obviously, and  they make all the pressure that can to blocked all initiative could attempt their wonderful world. Economic powers are worrying about weather and climate; but weather is a variable that they work usually , and climate they prefer believe and all is normal before to make something that damage their economic profits.

We are late in the climate change fight. Independent of thresholds or criteria that put it, CO2 is increasing because we don’t stop to burn. Every year of inaction worsted our possibilities of success. Things must be thinking before to make a disaster. But it’s very suppressive the extreme cautionwith taken the climate questions in front the less precautionary with taken economic decision, not only when it attacks nature, where it was do really barbarities, but in the same economic context, ruining thousands of people in every bad economic decision.

But we are putting the eye on the CO2 emission, surely the main issue; therefore exists more issues that playing and multiply the main effect. Deforestation of rain forest, pressure on the water, overexploitation of natural sources makes imbalances in the complex planetary climate system. In the background of it there is the overpopulation. Today America is feeding the rest of word, join to Africa. Today Africa has less wild land than USA; African people emigrate to Europe because their food is exported to Europe and Asia. Europe and Asia can’t produce enough food for their habitants. The great food companies invade wild land to increase the food production. More humans means to need more meal, and water, dresses, furniture… The predation of primary materials is intense and at this predation we must add the destruction due to the extraction of materials and the energy and waste necessary in their carrier to the use. Every new person implies more land to agriculture, more materials to supply and more trash. Trash is other problem because its processing needs energy work and materials in industrial word; but third world can’t pay the cost to process it, and it’s leaving to its luck, increasing the pressure on the nature. Today Canada is devastating its forest and tundras to get Tar Sands but Indonesia  is ending its rain forest for wood and substitute them for palm plantations, more profitable because it’s the basis of soap.

Indonesian Rain Forest destruction

Mayas end, until XX century, was a mystery with more speculations make. But a casual find about an extreme drought in XVIII in rain forest of Central America give light that it could pass. First it was found that boundary conditions that had in XVIII, were the same in XII century when Mayas disappeared, second fossil proves that XII century in Central America suffer a more extreme drought and extended in time. But the question is Why was different that produces the end of a civilization? The answer is the population. Mayas were two orders of magnitude more populates than the current population of XVIII. This population, less estimated until then, ware living in an extensive cities of wood (thing that produces de les estimation) which it must be alimented. The rainforest haven’t rich land and it required to race new extensions of rainforest at the time. Mayas race all the rainforest of Central America, when season drought arrived the protection of rainforest weren’t, the agriculture collapse and society explode.

Today the use of fossil fuel allows us to make miracles. When the number of people passes the threshold of sustainability we supply it to carry from other site. This will be a boomerang because the overpopulation of zone doesn’t stop to grow, which requires growing proportional the supply, until the source can’t give more; after we go to the other source. The bad news is the sources are finites, because planet is finite.

Now the process toward new climate is beginning and our path in this process has a trend to down, we are falling. It’s finished the time to answer if there are or not climate change, the question is if we are downing in a low trend which allows us to save of disaster or we are falling down along a ravine

dimarts, 2 de juny de 2015

John Nash and the death of Alpha Male

“John Nash 1928 – 2015 mathematician Nobel Prix of economy”

Attila is attributed to the phrase "the most important thing isn’t winning, but other opponents are defeated".  This sentence is an obvious extreme: if everyone wins nobody won. That we have examples everywhere, everyone who isn’t the first in race has lost; and no matter how well you run or had overcome more difficulties than others, what mattered was who first crosses to the finish line. Not only in sport are examples. In the workplace it every day How many people are fighting a struggle against the competition with the result of a victory and ruin the rest? Normally the losers have done less merit than the winner, although details have decided that fortune has tipped to one side or another of the net (Match Point (Woody Allen).)

Every race there are one only winner

But the Attila’s phrase has more significance of which seems, as I explain in "Absolutism a gene more of human beings" humans are gregarious as chimpanzees, and how they have "Alpha Males" who govern and we obey as sheep. But to ensure the constant presence of "alpha male" leading the flock required constant supply of it, so every day new born potential M.Alfa  which will fight for the status that his body needs. When Attila talks about defeat, he refers to a defeat without answering and the acceptance by the losers of their status and submission to the winner.

Today the entire social organization is subject to these rules, but John Nash proved this social structuring is totally inefficient. It’s indisputable that wolves, chimpanzees and other gregarious animals have societies, but these never exceed a large number of individuals. All these organizations tend to fragmentation and disintegration. Our blidness historical perspective  tend us to see the opposite thanks to globalization; but just look at history to see that feudalism is the social organization that humanity chooses and modern populated cities are strated in ghettos and social classes without connection between them. However all empires haven’t finished falling by external invasions, but rather by stratification and bureaucratization   of their society (todaynot be different: The Legacy absolutist).

The death of John Nash "John Nash, mathematician portrayed in A Beautiful Mind, dies in taxi crash at 86" The Guardian, has had a global impact because of the movie "A Beautiful Mind" (2001) which basically showed his fighting schizophrenia, a bit like being the caricature of a "madness teacher " in the end turned out to be great. But Dr. Nash was much more than it. He has important contributions to mathematics and especially game theory, apart from work on cryptography and geometry.
It is precisely their contribution to game theory where his contribution was more surprising, which earned him the Nobel Prize in Economics. Normally used to explain other examples or paradoxes Nash equilibrium, though I will use the example that comes to the film that can be summed up in the saying: "The beautiful envy the luck of the ugly." Suppose two friends: a beautiful and "nice" coming out party. As usual all the males dispute the charms of the beautiful and the ugly despise; but one of the smartest males instead of going to by the pretty ugly, because it has competition and to succeed; finger refers perhaps to the grace that makes him pretty eccentric is the swarm of suitors is removed.

The previous practice is not new, it’s usual in a friends group to distribute to avoid crush. But this smart attitude is forgetting in the other aspects of life, which are fighting for the best position completely alien to the overall objective of the group. Only in cases of extreme danger or survival, we behave in collective work, the most of the times we are incapable of understanding if the rest also earn you win more. However, neoliberalism promotes individualism, rewarding the smartest at the expense of anyone. In this regard Nash rends all liberal economic theories. His theory seemed to have changed the world economy in crisis 80 but the fall of the Berlin Wall and the madness of cheap credit were revived savage capitalism. Interestingly most economy Nobel are mathematical not gurus of the economy, there will be some reason: "Economics: Science or Religion."

The alpha male is a problem in any team. First must spend resources to maintain its position and decisions often counterproductive to the goal of the group to keep it. On the other hand the existence of Alpha Male candidates are making these more outstanding climbing this position than in its task within the group, causing tensions (even sabotage) or request to be well positioned for side events and delaying global work so does their part.

Humans should take example of large swarms, but unfortunately follow the example of Attila.

dissabte, 7 de març de 2015

The fossil CO2 is going out Permafrost

In July of 2014 irrupts the amazing news of the discovery in Permafrost one huge crater of about 80 meters in diameter in a remote part of Siberi, specifically in Yamal Peninsula. The needed of the time to arrive until this far region, created a mount of urban tales that what could it be. From first images we can observe the considerable. The news had spread like wildfire because of the legend of "Well to Hell" (Well where we could go down to hell) that is supposed to Siberia, although this urban legend is the result of the craters produced by opencast Russian that can be seen from satellite. Several hypotheses have been considered. First they think about the possibility of a meteorite, probably induced by the psychosis that produced the massive drop in a year, but can rule out the tubular shape of it. Today we know taht is a gas explosion, logical that area is the largest number of farms and gas resources of Russia, and also in very small scale found in the Permafrost Area for similar craters due to this phenomenon.

Siberian hole discober in July of 2014

The Global Warming melting the continental ice (as explained in "The great flood") because of the large expanses of Greenland and Antarctica, the Permafrost are immense beds of continental ice melt and also contribute to increase the sea level. Actually the Permafrost contributes a lot in the Climate Change. Ice retains that dissolved gases when the liquid was water. Especially CO2 and CH4 (methane: natural gas). The clean ice has little methane but Permafrost is frozen peat that microbial life decays very slowly. The putrefaction of this peat generates methane is combined with ice water creating Methane Hydrides freeze also leaving the CH4 captured on ice.

However a recent study “Winters in Siberian permafrost regions have warmed since millennia” shows a warming of Permafrost since 7,000 years ago. Obviously it doesn’t mean that Global warming is a hoax or the no human hand in this climate phenomenon. Really as I write in “The drop that makes a glass overflows”, Climate Change is a combination of two factor, natural trend and a little (or big) human help.

So it is not surprising that in his immense permafrost Russia is supplying gas to Europe and soon to China. But global warming is melting the ice and creating methane hydrides bags, which combined with salt and internal movements of the same Permafrost (essentially due to the same thaw), explode and release gases into the atmosphere.

The size of the current crater on one side is worrying because it is the size of a hoses apple and adds a hazard to people and facilities (high risk because they are oil exploration); and secondly indicate an acceleration of the process of melting ice also detected in Greenland and Antarctic Peninsula. Speeding Melting Permafrost also involve increased speed of global warming due to the release of greenhouse gases trapped in it.

But does this mean that it's unleashing the entry of a new Cretaceous? Not necessarily, in fact if the melting Permafrost what would happen according to some modeling is quite the opposite; return to an Ice Age. Melt the permafrost and Greenland, freshwater would fill the Arctic Ocean. In fact this is what happens, Arctic doesn’t desalinate, because fresh water doesn’t mix with the salt, but is forming a huge bubble of fresh water in the center. Freshwater trapped there would only be a matter of time before this was over diluting the salt, but continued contribution makes it grow rather than diluted. The combined action of the circumpolar currents and ice bench of Pole keep supporting this fresh water, even if it grows more will end incoming into the Atlantic Ocean flow; fresh water is lighter than salt sinking below the current Thermohaline and preventing it can release its heat to Western Europe causing the entry of a new ice age (read “The day after tomorrow").

A curiosity in Siberia is not good news for our world. Studies confirm the acceleration (not the stop) of Global warming. Certainly all the responsibility of this climate threat isn’t human, but today we face the great challenge of climate, and every day goes out new evidence on the Climate Change that economic powers try to minimize. Russia has a vested interest in minimizing the incident, but considering that their wealth is aposentada on foundations that melt they fall to the idea of seeing a disaster as BP in the Gulf of Mexico, if before the Carbon Bubble will explode their dependent oil economy. 

dimarts, 30 de desembre de 2014

2014 the hottest year than ever

Published in Linkedin: 2014 the hottest year than ever (30/12/14)

Cretaceous was an age which everybody imagines as a global tropical world. In fact and long terms is true, but in this long period it could happen more climates. However there was very quiet period, always we compare with current time; and it has singularities that it goes away to the ideal tropical climate. Cetaceous was hot; but ironically tropics no more than current, while polar seas (there wasn’t any continent in there) was as warmed current areas. Unlike today Cretaceous climate haven’t great differences in relation to latitude, the heat was efficiently transported to the poles by the oceans. Planet hasn’t a significate temperature gradient, so winds was only an anecdote, and it means that more part of land emerge (without continental ice of Antarctica level sea was more of 200 meters higher than today, The great flood) was a desert (read The day after Tomorrow where explain little the importance of distribution of continents and current climate).

This presentation tray to explain how difficult is stablished the degree hot of any time period. Nowhere have the same orographic shape every time, and climates evolve with it; Cretaceous and today aren’t comparable. To say “the hottest year than ever” is a phrase surely false. All Cretaceous if we could apply the same parameters of today was hotter than any of the 26 million years. Unfortunately we can’t apply; temperatures or localization of real sites are only estimates. Therefore we can compare 2014 with the last 100 years, and the answer is yes; 2014 is the hottest year from we have real meteorological data.

Some people can’t believe this. 2014 began with polar vortex, tree chips caught in the Antarctic Ice, and Climate Deniers blaming about the imminent arrived of Ice Age. Even then global main temperature was higher than other similar north winters. Today I write near of Mediterranean Northern Coast, but temperature in street is -6 Celsius degree in a town at 300 meters above sea level, hot compared with current temperatures in northern Europe but very cold compared to normal for the time. But satellite data confirms the opposite of our perception seems. It may seem a contradiction but it has a very easy reason other sites of North Hemisphere are temperatures higher than normal for the time; in fact just one week weather in my town was as beginning of fall, and the last month (November) weather was as summer.

The supposed Global Warming Hiatus or Pause is only an invention of Climate Skeptics, who’s taken partial data for corroborate their hypothesis. In the beginning of 2013 (winter is the better time to publish denier postulates) some corrections of the IPCC model and the Britain Met Office Scandal about some e-mails that affirms falsifying data, were the trigger for the campaign to the Global Warming Hoax. Two item are true; but the main data before, while and after scandal were contrasted, and models are always correcting. All model parameters adjustment that corrects when compared with reality; in other hand more boundaries are adding after when it see their needed. For example melting ice are beginning to be relevant in the moderation of temperatures; when main temperature are low melting was insignificant, but current temperatures melting more ice, melting ice waste energy without change of temperature; the current models proves to including the melting ice (read Really are temperatures stopping its rice?). However even correction all the models foresee a rise in temperature.

Data is concluding: Earth is warming day by day. There are satellites that scrutinize temperatures around the globe. There are also controlling the thermal forcing, is to say the balance between the energy that enters and leaves. Climate is in the eye, because every year increases the amount of economic losses that causes. And only the other economic interest, the interest of fossil energies which doesn’t want to lose their business.

dimecres, 24 de desembre de 2014

Grey Christmas

In current year I don’t want to write any Christmas Post, because some unfortunately circumstances added at I don’t like too much Christmas, left in blank my mind, every time that I sat in front the computer. Yes December 24 is late to write but until yesterday I hadn’t enough strong to write how I feel now.

But I made a small revision to these celebrations mean eliminating the religious connotations. These celebrations are an end of year stock of the successes and failures that we harvest; while we entering a new year with hope for the days that we sell. To make it we come back to the family, seeking the roots because they give us strength, although five minutes thinking "please someone remove me here".

We need this goal to confirm where our lives go (although this course for many in these days is the drift). So I wish you:

A good reunion with origin (Merry Christmas) and a better 2015

Attached as a postcard presentation, which at the moment is therefore unknown to me as to you (ie I still start) I entitled Grey Christmas and I think the name of an idea that will (Quiet lasts three minutes).


I don't want to finish with a negative message, so I give us a small carol

Better 2015

divendres, 28 de novembre de 2014

Coal, a drug for mankind very difficult to leave

Published in Linkedin: Coal, a drug for mankind very difficult to leave (28/11/2014)

If someone asks for jobs with less future, probably in all lists would write the coal mining. Coal has historically generated many jobs, however mechanization has been declining number of employers; but in many parts of the developing world is still mining, sometimes in border on slavery, which is feeding (bad eating to be exact) many people from earliest childhood. Now a danger is hovering over this form of living. Although coal will remain nearly 300-year to explode with current consumption, but the need to reduce CO2 emissions questions the continuity of this mining.

Coal was the engine of the Industrial Revolution. The steam machines from the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries moved thanks to black stones that we could burn. But the twentieth century discovered a new fuel: the Oil, which was more manageable, easy to get and it has more potential uses. Later he appeared a third competitor (gas) with equal performance but did not emit solid waste (ash) into the air, which reduced pollution (smog) suffering most cities. Still as a system of massive energy generation remained the king, and neither the new nuclear energy could argue this supremacy as this is much more expensive (except France due to political decision taking by De Gaulle).

But Climate Change has questioned the supremacy of all fossil fuels, oil, gas i coal. Coal suffers from two handicaps what have neither oil nor gas. First, it doesn’t degrade, in fact the high quality coal is more than 300 million years, something unthinkable in the oil and gas which end up surfacing and the environment destroys it. So if the mine is closed, coal will remain waiting for someone to come to exploit it. Moreover, coal produces a high pollution generated as much unburned (soot), besides it drags much sand, hardly separable, which are injected into air as suspended particles, which would add to the pollution of other hydrocarbons.

Coal now has allies. On the one hand brad new producing countries, as Australia and Canada. These with intensive opencast mining, produce coal of low quality but very cheap, because they extract a great amount with little labor. It may not generate large numbers of jobs, but many government revenues at a time of crisis. This mining is also called into question due to the environmental cost, comparable to Fracking, and highly pollutant that is the burning of this coal. On the other hand the developing countries that do not have sufficient income to invest in change of energy sources and less investigate them; not to mention its coal deposits, usually outdated, feed a lot of people with wives recycling opportunities for other industry.

China and USA have signed an agreement to reduce CO2 emissions which means it will reduce the combustion of hydrocarbons. It is obvious that will always remain a small remnant of combustion, but is unlikely to be coal. Still going to be very difficult for this reduction is immediate, because changing power source is not done in two days. The question is We have enough time?

dimarts, 11 de novembre de 2014

Is fresh water ending in the World? No, but we've got problems

Current humanity has got enough knowledge and technical to convert salt water into fresh water. Global water doesn’t change its amount, and sea water we can convert in continental water as we want. But there is a little problem: is expensive.

Water is the most abundant mineral in the Earth's crust, as I said in “Water”, which is the why that life is based on it, summarize to have other physic-chemical properties that make it unique, which makes it invaluable; although its abundance relegates it to have a residual value. Brazil somewhat smaller than Europe, and it has a patchwork of climates, however its position in Ecuador it has got a rainforest in main part of its territory, yet there are also deserts. The Brazilian population lives mainly on the coast with high densities of population, but they haven't water problems because they live so close to a forest. Until today, the Sao Paolo region is experiencing an unprecedented drought in the area, which begins to put the capital supply problems. Most alarming is that the culture of the area with respect to water's total disregard for the drought, make it go to waste as stocks continue to decline.

The causes of this drought are several. On one side Brazil is literally devastating their rainforest, this is starting to show in the rainfall pattern. But there is something more alarming and no tractate question which is playing, however nobody sees or wants to see. Brazil now has 200 million habitants, but in 1990 was less than 160 million, this is a 25% of increase in just two decades, and in that time the infrastructure hasn’t time to adapt. How neither does the climate, both Brazilian and global population grows exponentially but the average annual rainfall on the planet has not grown in the last century as one would expect if the climate doesn't change.

J. S. Famiglietti et alt. have been published in Nature ("The overall groundwater crisis" 29/10/2014) work about the collapse of the natural sources of water. We are predators of natural fresh water. Drought doesn’t make problems to the humans and their economic interests, but nature is also without the precious mineral to live. Today not only suffer from drought areas traditionally its rains are irregular and scanty, but areas that never suffered this problem are facing it. The causes that produce it are diverse, as I mentioned, being among them Climate Change. Although Climate Change as such is often more consequence than a cause. For example Lake Chad disappears as it happens at the Aral Sea, both cases are the result of man's hand; people improved collection techniques and improved water use crops, thereby improved life expectancy and accelerating population growth. Both cases water from these two lakes has become part of people, livestock and crops in the region; without evaporation of water from these lakes no rain.

To have fresh water is only a technical problem and also economic. If we want to desalinate sea water, we need a great amount of energy in any kind of method that we use. Cost for supply all the human needs is unattainable; better don’t think what is cost of supply whole nature. Luckily Sun is the main machine of generate fresh water, but if we continue to increase the consumption of water in nature, nature will can’t give scope, as it begins to happen. We often forget that we couldn’t survive without nature. Just as an example bee crisis in Europe, it not only is ruining beekeepers, without bees there is no pollination and crops. Desalinating water is an option, but not the solution.

The world population reached 7,000 million in 2011, in 2014 only three years later we are already 7,300 million; considering that in 1970 there were only 3,600 million, the half of current, and world had reached 1,000 million in the first half of the nineteenth century, governments and any kind of global agencies are taking conscience the size of problem. The water crisis has much related with the population that an area can support than Climate Change or other environment trouble, but when the territory is the whole planet the situation becomes dramatic. It’s true that there are still many empty areas and territories that have plenty of fresh water, although the rates that we grow these are becoming less. Urgently address the problem of overpopulation, whether for religious or economic reasons always they look to other site.