Bloc en català

dissabte, 7 de març de 2015

The fossil CO2 is going out Permafrost

In July of 2014 irrupts the amazing news of the discovery in Permafrost one huge crater of about 80 meters in diameter in a remote part of Siberi, specifically in Yamal Peninsula. The needed of the time to arrive until this far region, created a mount of urban tales that what could it be. From first images we can observe the considerable. The news had spread like wildfire because of the legend of "Well to Hell" (Well where we could go down to hell) that is supposed to Siberia, although this urban legend is the result of the craters produced by opencast Russian that can be seen from satellite. Several hypotheses have been considered. First they think about the possibility of a meteorite, probably induced by the psychosis that produced the massive drop in a year, but can rule out the tubular shape of it. Today we know taht is a gas explosion, logical that area is the largest number of farms and gas resources of Russia, and also in very small scale found in the Permafrost Area for similar craters due to this phenomenon.

Siberian hole discober in July of 2014

The Global Warming melting the continental ice (as explained in "The great flood") because of the large expanses of Greenland and Antarctica, the Permafrost are immense beds of continental ice melt and also contribute to increase the sea level. Actually the Permafrost contributes a lot in the Climate Change. Ice retains that dissolved gases when the liquid was water. Especially CO2 and CH4 (methane: natural gas). The clean ice has little methane but Permafrost is frozen peat that microbial life decays very slowly. The putrefaction of this peat generates methane is combined with ice water creating Methane Hydrides freeze also leaving the CH4 captured on ice.

However a recent study “Winters in Siberian permafrost regions have warmed since millennia” shows a warming of Permafrost since 7,000 years ago. Obviously it doesn’t mean that Global warming is a hoax or the no human hand in this climate phenomenon. Really as I write in “The drop that makes a glass overflows”, Climate Change is a combination of two factor, natural trend and a little (or big) human help.

So it is not surprising that in his immense permafrost Russia is supplying gas to Europe and soon to China. But global warming is melting the ice and creating methane hydrides bags, which combined with salt and internal movements of the same Permafrost (essentially due to the same thaw), explode and release gases into the atmosphere.

The size of the current crater on one side is worrying because it is the size of a hoses apple and adds a hazard to people and facilities (high risk because they are oil exploration); and secondly indicate an acceleration of the process of melting ice also detected in Greenland and Antarctic Peninsula. Speeding Melting Permafrost also involve increased speed of global warming due to the release of greenhouse gases trapped in it.

But does this mean that it's unleashing the entry of a new Cretaceous? Not necessarily, in fact if the melting Permafrost what would happen according to some modeling is quite the opposite; return to an Ice Age. Melt the permafrost and Greenland, freshwater would fill the Arctic Ocean. In fact this is what happens, Arctic doesn’t desalinate, because fresh water doesn’t mix with the salt, but is forming a huge bubble of fresh water in the center. Freshwater trapped there would only be a matter of time before this was over diluting the salt, but continued contribution makes it grow rather than diluted. The combined action of the circumpolar currents and ice bench of Pole keep supporting this fresh water, even if it grows more will end incoming into the Atlantic Ocean flow; fresh water is lighter than salt sinking below the current Thermohaline and preventing it can release its heat to Western Europe causing the entry of a new ice age (read “The day after tomorrow").

A curiosity in Siberia is not good news for our world. Studies confirm the acceleration (not the stop) of Global warming. Certainly all the responsibility of this climate threat isn’t human, but today we face the great challenge of climate, and every day goes out new evidence on the Climate Change that economic powers try to minimize. Russia has a vested interest in minimizing the incident, but considering that their wealth is aposentada on foundations that melt they fall to the idea of seeing a disaster as BP in the Gulf of Mexico, if before the Carbon Bubble will explode their dependent oil economy. 

dimarts, 30 de desembre de 2014

2014 the hottest year than ever

Published in Linkedin: 2014 the hottest year than ever (30/12/14)

Cretaceous was an age which everybody imagines as a global tropical world. In fact and long terms is true, but in this long period it could happen more climates. However there was very quiet period, always we compare with current time; and it has singularities that it goes away to the ideal tropical climate. Cetaceous was hot; but ironically tropics no more than current, while polar seas (there wasn’t any continent in there) was as warmed current areas. Unlike today Cretaceous climate haven’t great differences in relation to latitude, the heat was efficiently transported to the poles by the oceans. Planet hasn’t a significate temperature gradient, so winds was only an anecdote, and it means that more part of land emerge (without continental ice of Antarctica level sea was more of 200 meters higher than today, The great flood) was a desert (read The day after Tomorrow where explain little the importance of distribution of continents and current climate).

This presentation tray to explain how difficult is stablished the degree hot of any time period. Nowhere have the same orographic shape every time, and climates evolve with it; Cretaceous and today aren’t comparable. To say “the hottest year than ever” is a phrase surely false. All Cretaceous if we could apply the same parameters of today was hotter than any of the 26 million years. Unfortunately we can’t apply; temperatures or localization of real sites are only estimates. Therefore we can compare 2014 with the last 100 years, and the answer is yes; 2014 is the hottest year from we have real meteorological data.

Some people can’t believe this. 2014 began with polar vortex, tree chips caught in the Antarctic Ice, and Climate Deniers blaming about the imminent arrived of Ice Age. Even then global main temperature was higher than other similar north winters. Today I write near of Mediterranean Northern Coast, but temperature in street is -6 Celsius degree in a town at 300 meters above sea level, hot compared with current temperatures in northern Europe but very cold compared to normal for the time. But satellite data confirms the opposite of our perception seems. It may seem a contradiction but it has a very easy reason other sites of North Hemisphere are temperatures higher than normal for the time; in fact just one week weather in my town was as beginning of fall, and the last month (November) weather was as summer.

The supposed Global Warming Hiatus or Pause is only an invention of Climate Skeptics, who’s taken partial data for corroborate their hypothesis. In the beginning of 2013 (winter is the better time to publish denier postulates) some corrections of the IPCC model and the Britain Met Office Scandal about some e-mails that affirms falsifying data, were the trigger for the campaign to the Global Warming Hoax. Two item are true; but the main data before, while and after scandal were contrasted, and models are always correcting. All model parameters adjustment that corrects when compared with reality; in other hand more boundaries are adding after when it see their needed. For example melting ice are beginning to be relevant in the moderation of temperatures; when main temperature are low melting was insignificant, but current temperatures melting more ice, melting ice waste energy without change of temperature; the current models proves to including the melting ice (read Really are temperatures stopping its rice?). However even correction all the models foresee a rise in temperature.

Data is concluding: Earth is warming day by day. There are satellites that scrutinize temperatures around the globe. There are also controlling the thermal forcing, is to say the balance between the energy that enters and leaves. Climate is in the eye, because every year increases the amount of economic losses that causes. And only the other economic interest, the interest of fossil energies which doesn’t want to lose their business.

dimecres, 24 de desembre de 2014

Grey Christmas

In current year I don’t want to write any Christmas Post, because some unfortunately circumstances added at I don’t like too much Christmas, left in blank my mind, every time that I sat in front the computer. Yes December 24 is late to write but until yesterday I hadn’t enough strong to write how I feel now.

But I made a small revision to these celebrations mean eliminating the religious connotations. These celebrations are an end of year stock of the successes and failures that we harvest; while we entering a new year with hope for the days that we sell. To make it we come back to the family, seeking the roots because they give us strength, although five minutes thinking "please someone remove me here".

We need this goal to confirm where our lives go (although this course for many in these days is the drift). So I wish you:

A good reunion with origin (Merry Christmas) and a better 2015

Attached as a postcard presentation, which at the moment is therefore unknown to me as to you (ie I still start) I entitled Grey Christmas and I think the name of an idea that will (Quiet lasts three minutes).


I don't want to finish with a negative message, so I give us a small carol

Better 2015

divendres, 28 de novembre de 2014

Coal, a drug for mankind very difficult to leave

Published in Linkedin: Coal, a drug for mankind very difficult to leave (28/11/2014)

If someone asks for jobs with less future, probably in all lists would write the coal mining. Coal has historically generated many jobs, however mechanization has been declining number of employers; but in many parts of the developing world is still mining, sometimes in border on slavery, which is feeding (bad eating to be exact) many people from earliest childhood. Now a danger is hovering over this form of living. Although coal will remain nearly 300-year to explode with current consumption, but the need to reduce CO2 emissions questions the continuity of this mining.

Coal was the engine of the Industrial Revolution. The steam machines from the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries moved thanks to black stones that we could burn. But the twentieth century discovered a new fuel: the Oil, which was more manageable, easy to get and it has more potential uses. Later he appeared a third competitor (gas) with equal performance but did not emit solid waste (ash) into the air, which reduced pollution (smog) suffering most cities. Still as a system of massive energy generation remained the king, and neither the new nuclear energy could argue this supremacy as this is much more expensive (except France due to political decision taking by De Gaulle).

But Climate Change has questioned the supremacy of all fossil fuels, oil, gas i coal. Coal suffers from two handicaps what have neither oil nor gas. First, it doesn’t degrade, in fact the high quality coal is more than 300 million years, something unthinkable in the oil and gas which end up surfacing and the environment destroys it. So if the mine is closed, coal will remain waiting for someone to come to exploit it. Moreover, coal produces a high pollution generated as much unburned (soot), besides it drags much sand, hardly separable, which are injected into air as suspended particles, which would add to the pollution of other hydrocarbons.

Coal now has allies. On the one hand brad new producing countries, as Australia and Canada. These with intensive opencast mining, produce coal of low quality but very cheap, because they extract a great amount with little labor. It may not generate large numbers of jobs, but many government revenues at a time of crisis. This mining is also called into question due to the environmental cost, comparable to Fracking, and highly pollutant that is the burning of this coal. On the other hand the developing countries that do not have sufficient income to invest in change of energy sources and less investigate them; not to mention its coal deposits, usually outdated, feed a lot of people with wives recycling opportunities for other industry.

China and USA have signed an agreement to reduce CO2 emissions which means it will reduce the combustion of hydrocarbons. It is obvious that will always remain a small remnant of combustion, but is unlikely to be coal. Still going to be very difficult for this reduction is immediate, because changing power source is not done in two days. The question is We have enough time?

dimarts, 11 de novembre de 2014

Is fresh water ending in the World? No, but we've got problems

Current humanity has got enough knowledge and technical to convert salt water into fresh water. Global water doesn’t change its amount, and sea water we can convert in continental water as we want. But there is a little problem: is expensive.

Water is the most abundant mineral in the Earth's crust, as I said in “Water”, which is the why that life is based on it, summarize to have other physic-chemical properties that make it unique, which makes it invaluable; although its abundance relegates it to have a residual value. Brazil somewhat smaller than Europe, and it has a patchwork of climates, however its position in Ecuador it has got a rainforest in main part of its territory, yet there are also deserts. The Brazilian population lives mainly on the coast with high densities of population, but they haven't water problems because they live so close to a forest. Until today, the Sao Paolo region is experiencing an unprecedented drought in the area, which begins to put the capital supply problems. Most alarming is that the culture of the area with respect to water's total disregard for the drought, make it go to waste as stocks continue to decline.

The causes of this drought are several. On one side Brazil is literally devastating their rainforest, this is starting to show in the rainfall pattern. But there is something more alarming and no tractate question which is playing, however nobody sees or wants to see. Brazil now has 200 million habitants, but in 1990 was less than 160 million, this is a 25% of increase in just two decades, and in that time the infrastructure hasn’t time to adapt. How neither does the climate, both Brazilian and global population grows exponentially but the average annual rainfall on the planet has not grown in the last century as one would expect if the climate doesn't change.

J. S. Famiglietti et alt. have been published in Nature ("The overall groundwater crisis" 29/10/2014) work about the collapse of the natural sources of water. We are predators of natural fresh water. Drought doesn’t make problems to the humans and their economic interests, but nature is also without the precious mineral to live. Today not only suffer from drought areas traditionally its rains are irregular and scanty, but areas that never suffered this problem are facing it. The causes that produce it are diverse, as I mentioned, being among them Climate Change. Although Climate Change as such is often more consequence than a cause. For example Lake Chad disappears as it happens at the Aral Sea, both cases are the result of man's hand; people improved collection techniques and improved water use crops, thereby improved life expectancy and accelerating population growth. Both cases water from these two lakes has become part of people, livestock and crops in the region; without evaporation of water from these lakes no rain.

To have fresh water is only a technical problem and also economic. If we want to desalinate sea water, we need a great amount of energy in any kind of method that we use. Cost for supply all the human needs is unattainable; better don’t think what is cost of supply whole nature. Luckily Sun is the main machine of generate fresh water, but if we continue to increase the consumption of water in nature, nature will can’t give scope, as it begins to happen. We often forget that we couldn’t survive without nature. Just as an example bee crisis in Europe, it not only is ruining beekeepers, without bees there is no pollination and crops. Desalinating water is an option, but not the solution.

The world population reached 7,000 million in 2011, in 2014 only three years later we are already 7,300 million; considering that in 1970 there were only 3,600 million, the half of current, and world had reached 1,000 million in the first half of the nineteenth century, governments and any kind of global agencies are taking conscience the size of problem. The water crisis has much related with the population that an area can support than Climate Change or other environment trouble, but when the territory is the whole planet the situation becomes dramatic. It’s true that there are still many empty areas and territories that have plenty of fresh water, although the rates that we grow these are becoming less. Urgently address the problem of overpopulation, whether for religious or economic reasons always they look to other site.

dissabte, 25 d’octubre de 2014

Oil falls below $ 90

Posted in Linkedin Oct 16 2014

It seems very good news. Historically low price of energy reduces production costs especially with an extremely tech world as the current. But now the paradigm is completely contrary, the financial economy governs the world relegating industry and agriculture to a second order. Today buy and sell moves the world not produce.

Oil is one of the more products that financial markets buy and sell, and it mean that follows the marked rules in terms of price. But oil had an artificial price. When created OPEC, it was grouping major countries which had greater oil reserves by the standards of that time; it created a Mega Dumping that killed the oil market, because if the price down production stopped and this turned up. Since the 70s the world energy economy has been captive to the decisions of these countries. Although now it's different, most of these countries have imposed economic plans that are viable only if they maintain the current flow of oil sales, which is impossible now due to the drop in demand for crises; current plans of these countries haven’t way to agree with lower production and lower price. On the other hand high prices of oil, and the constant research in mining technology open opportunities a new extraction techniques such as fracking, which are allow extracting oil from sources discarded until now, he expanded existing reserves; they have flooded the market of oil not controlled by OPEC.

Oil is one of the more is one of the many goods that are bought and sold every day. Its consumption is closed to us. Every day thousands of drivers fill the tanks of their derivatives: gasoline. But fuel prices don’t decrease of the same magnitude to the oil prices. The reason is very simple oil sold today was bought six months ago for the price of seeds. Before the summer oil Brent was above $100 but today is near to the $80. It will be great news to the drivers when prices will arrive in fuel delivers, but it would be a disaster in in the medium term for their pockets.

After financial crisis, oil has become to the safe value. Equal to buildings before which “never will down its prices”; oil will become an “undownable” value where invest the money. Today, oil is bought years away (in futures market), with the premise the consumption is always increasing and sources are finites (in short time added). But consumption is downing by crisis and it never will increase because Climate Change fight needs the reduction of CO2 emission; so oil, coal and gas must be decreasing to waste; obviously finite sources don’t matter if we don’t burn oil.

The disaster is inevitable. Reducing emissions means massive drop in oil consumption; and change the oil producing states and need not lower turnover if they want to keep their financial statements balanced. A disaster in the financial statements both imply losses for shareholders as the oil company as the public debt of oil-producing countries. But oil futures bought not only affects oil world, were going to the oil escaping from the financial bubble, and generating the current carbon bubble. If the oil price falls, pension or investment funds also fall with them; and considering how some leverage financial products with other, whole financial house of cards will fall, winding the economy.

Obviously this reduction is attempted in the maximum delay time, but there is no time because climate change isn’t knocking the door, it’s entering. Noteworthy is that the Rockefeller Family leaves the business that made them millionaires; and there is more movement in this direction. Today oil and coal and gas, are beginning to falter. For years experts predict the probable Oil Bubble and when it explodes it will be more devastating than the financial. At the moment winter is coming in North Hemisphere but prices are still downing.

dimecres, 8 d’octubre de 2014

The great flood

Sea level rises slowly as glaciers melt threatening the population

Do not be deceived. A bad summer does not mean that global warming has stopped. In fact experienced bad weather, especially in winter, is largely the result of increased atmospheric activity caused by a higher amount of energy. In the same way that a hot summer does not mean Global Warming, it is very cold in winter nor does it mean it will start an ice age: Climate Change is a long process, but not necessarily slows.

NY under sea

This winter there was a Polar Vortex that struck northern America, and Antarctic takes an extent never seen; but the average global temperature has continued to grow, which refutes those who spoke about the stop of Global Warming. This warming is melting, not only Arctic Icecap, but is melding also all the continental glaciers. Photographic evidence more observation from satellites leave no doubt. And the continental water just melts inexorably into the sea. The ocean level rises. Today the sea is engulfing many islands and even entire island nations as Venice. And not just islands, deltas, bays and coastal flood zones are slowly being swallowed by the sea.

The inexorable disappearance of the Coast produces will have a devastating effect on the world population. Larger cities are seaports: New York, Hong Kong, Buenos Aires ... they will be swallowed by the sea. More than 40% of the world population lives near to coast. The melting of ice in Greenland or the Antarctic Peninsula produce increased level of 7-10 meters separately and up to 20 meters if two will melt. It may seem little, but the most populated areas of the coast don’t exceed 10 meters (height of a two story house) above mean sea level, the sea may penetrate several miles inland. Whenever Antarctica will not melts entire so it has contains 80% of the World's freshwater, fortunately is not case, this would mean back to the Cretaceous, something practically impossible due to the current distribution of continents.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established threshold of 400 ppm CO2. Obviously this number is a round number, which corresponds to double of CO2 that was in the pre-industrial era and also the highest concentration of this found in the last million years, comparable to earlier periods much warmer. This value is exceeded last year for the first time, and now we are again above. Even the Apocalypse hasn’t started something that deniers of climate change have already taken advantage of this, and it doesn’t mean that the climate isn’t working on it. NASA and researchers in the field have warned that large ice masses of Antarctica and Greenland are losing mechanical consistency and increased the speed of sliding into the sea.

What do our leaders while? They care, they meet once a year (paying all for us), and do not bother to economic powers lest they get upset. They do nothing, more than 17 years after the Kyoto Protocol they are continuing discussed how to apply. Today it seems that USA has decided to take the bull by the horns and even China has been involved, but the pressure of lobbies (especially coal and oil) is very strong. Surely we cannot stop Climate Change, even if they could start preparing for its consequences; although as he prefers to continue arguing.

Kevin Costner starred in one of the biggest flops in film Waterworld (1995) film where all the ice melted and the sea covered the land. Obviously the total fusion of the poles would not produce this effect, although significantly reduce the current landmass to third just under a fifth. But surely this warming will not affect the core of the Antarctic. Still coastal flooding will produce increasing emigration never seen nearly 3,000 million people, according to the models in less than fifty years.