COVID-19 is here to remain with us

This variant of the cold is of simple infection as any cold and almost dangerous as the flu.

A simple virus is showing us the door of dystopia, when in fact the only thing that shows is the fragility of existence and human power

A widespread film genre is that of major catastrophes. They are usually horror films with impossible solution but one that is at the last moment and miraculously. Much of its success is usually the end, which reaffirms human capacity to solve problems as long as we turn to the best human values: solidarity, unity of action and collaboration. In the end these films are an apology of the human spirit and the viewer leaves the cinema with the pride of to be of own species, this is the key to success.

One such catastrophe is pandemics. The possible scenarios are diverse but the plot is usually very similar: an ultra-lethal virus which for human reasons (terrorism, neglect, conspiracies ...) overflows the healthcare services and there is no remedy; spread across half the planet (with predilection for USA) killing people without stop; while some of the officials (linked or not to the origin of the epidemic) propose drastic and inhuman measures, but when everyone is almost death, maybe after to apply the easy and inhuman resource and fail, the protagonists (who had the reason from the beginning of the film but they were ignored) find the solution, they manage to convince the authorities to apply it, and everything is solved in the last five minutes of the film.

COVID-19 is a real virus that has generated a real pandemic. It has also led to a collective psychosis, caused by the ignorance of journalists and the need for their audience. I am not a doctor but I understand a little about statistics and development of evolutionary models. I know nothing more than what I was able to read, so I won’t contribute anything that the specialist doctors haven’t said. I will simply try to give perspective that maybe this is what is missing in this crisis.

We must first forget what we have seen in movies or what we think is a pandemic. The common cold (catarrh) is a pandemic that occurs every time temperatures are lowered and the virus is reactivated. Recall that until the 20th century people died of a cold. In fact, he died of the complications caused by it, opening the door to more lethal opportunistic diseases. The success of a virus is to be no lethal.

We need to understand how an infection works. A virus is not a living thing, it is only a self-replicating molecule (RNA) that is encapsulated in a membrane where there is a protein that can bind to the target cells. The virulence of the virus is to find a cell that better and faster replicates as many new viruses as possible. But being lethal is a bad strategy because if the host dies too fast, the virus dies with it advancing enough viruses to continue perpetuating itself. Most films show totally unreal viruses, yes there is an ultra-lethal Ebola but it has never left the jungle where it was found, very different is the current Ebola epidemic which is much less lethal but enough to not getting out of Africa (thankfully).

How epidemic spread runs

It's a chain reaction. Suppose a contaminated individual with a disposition to be contagious (not always) infected two people, after a while these two people become available for contagious by contaminating the first three and the other one, and so on. The fourth group of contagious ones went from one contaminated to (2^4) + (2^3) + (2^2) + 2 + 1 = 31 in the tenth contagion there are already 2,048 and in the fifteenth they are 65,535 cases. You can see the start is quite slow, however it accelerates as time goes on. The time between infections is function of how easy infected people find new people not infected. Fortunately the population is finite it is increasingly difficult to find uninfected new ones, so the rate drops; At the same time, infected individuals either heal or die, thus ceasing to be infected. In this way the probability of infection increases exponentially but over time this increase becomes saturated and a fall of this probability begins.

Progress of a hypothetical epidemic in 30 days

The contagion curve follows this bell. We have a phase where few cases arise and everything goes very slowly but suddenly there is an explosion of cases. If the whole path of the epidemic is stretched in time, it not only allows caring for everyone, but that the rate ill / healthy allows the healthy to replace the sick during the illness and not collapse society. However, a fast process not only collapses health services, but also society as a whole, due to lack of cash.

The measures taken are so hard that we have no therapeutic tools or experience to treat this virus. At the same time, we are taking advantage of something that the flu or other veterinary diseases already have but that this new being does not have: that it is the geographical implantation; is to say where it is not yet has not passed and therefore are unlikely to be infected. These measures will be completed when they have become ill and have passed enough individuals and enter the negative curve of the epidemic.

Comparison between a curve that overflows the health system and a flat one

Really can we finish the virus?

The answer is no. Ideas like ending cancer or ending illness are a chimera. We must think about how our lives depend on thousands of microorganisms that are in symbiosis with us and which we act as hosts. All microorganisms have a short life and therefore their rate of genetic mutations is much higher than ours, at any moment there may be a bad replication that transforms the symbiont into a parasite in the same way that before they did the opposite way.

In the end the virus will become as other kind of cold, mainly when we go into remission by temperature which will cease to create cases but will continue to circulate idle spread in whole planet. Surely we already have tools to fight it and knowing its behavior can act when an epidemic is declared.

COVID - 19

After the crisis, this new virus will continue with us. It will continue to mutate, creating new types, some more violent, some milder. But we have to learn from the crisis  that nothing is safe, not just in terms of illnesses but also in any area of life. Nobody can control what doesn't know, however far the event may take place, sooner or later the consequences, sometimes imperceptible but sometimes multiplied, will come. However, this is life.